The busy bees over at Juniper are in a pre-Christmas frenzy it seems; they're very active recently (see here and here). Today, they have enlightened us yet again: according to their latest report, there is a niche sector that will actually be completely unaffected by the doom and gloom of the world economy, and that is mobile gambling. They predict this segment to double in size in 2009 to a not too shabby $3.6bn, 30% of which to be coming out of the UK.
However, 3/4 of that are said to come from betting, which is to say it is mainly an extension of existing betting business: Ladbrokes, Bwin, William Hill, etc, all run mobile sites funneling punters into their regular business. The second-largest sector is casino games, which would be the likes of IGT-owned Million-2-1 early movers Spin3 and the likes. And there is presumably poker (Cecure Gaming has captured a good position there it seems: live on all UK operator decks).
What they don't say is if the numbers quoted are gross turnover or only the rake (which is only a small fraction of the total). But the rationale convinces me, too: people will gamble. Hope is a powerful consumer value driver!
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So, what does this post mean Volk? You support the idea, or you are a little unsure about yet another Juniper report that blows too much smoke?
ReplyDeleteIt is not so much if I support it or not, is it? I do not have a safe set of numbers to tell. If $3.6bn is double 2008, then 2008 would be $1.8bn. If we deduct the 75% betting, we'll end with $450m for casino, poker, etc (which is probably everything), which would be (to make it simpler) $150m for the UK, which sounds very healthy and, I would think, a little bit on the high side IF - and only IF - the base number is the rake. If it is not, you'd have to deduct another, say, 90%, and you'll end up at $45m (or $15m for the UK). When you look who is active in the UK (Spin3, Million-2-1, Cecure, etc), $15m revenue between them that feels somehow more realistic (but I really don't know). However, $15m revenue for the largest (legal) mobile gambling market in the world is not that big then, is it?
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