Et tu, Juniper?

It must be truly bleak: even the best friend of every young telecoms entrepreneur on the fundraising trail whose reports rarely failed to feature as a footnote in an investment memorandum for the next big digital thing now sounds a word of caution. Juniper (whose reports I still cannot afford) issued its latest report on mobile gaming and it actually reduces (for the first time, I'm sure, even if I haven't checked) its prior predictions on the growth and size of the sector in the next, erm, 20 years...

They see growth stifled by the restrictive operator business models. Dare I say it? May they be right? They refer to Apple's AppStore, which is the anti-christ to every operator's walled garden: free for all, free price-setting, Darwinian survival of the fittest (or least-charging), thousands of applications, games, etc, etc, and relatively generous revenue shares on top (although 80% of $0.00 is not very much at all).

Juniper points however to 2 important and true factors: the tolls demanded by the operators to access their precious customer base are very high indeed considering that many do not provide a very compelling service in return. Secondly, marketing and marketing opportunities on-deck normally - well - suck. This was all well and good as long as their were no alternatives (other than the likes of Jamba, Thumbplay and few others). But with the ascent of the iPhone, everyone seems to erupt into a frenzy of trying to replicate the "beautifully simple and compelling UI" for which the purveyors of the Big Black Turtleneck are so famed for. This, Juniper fears, will lead to players exiting that business (I have heard unconfirmed rumours that SEGA decided to call it day on internal J2ME development following their huge success with Super Monkey Ball on the iPhone). 

Other than that though, not much new. And Juniper would not be Juniper if they would not predict "significant" growth in the next 5 years (conveniently long in order to be basically unpredictable): they see the market to roughly double in the next 5 years, which would be 20% growth per year (on today's terms), which is not all that bad after all. 

Playphone's Pitch: start of D2C shake-up in Europe?!

US D2C mobile content distributor Playphone announced it would acquire (well, they call it merge) UK counterpart Pitch Entertainment. No details disclosed (yawn). Playphone operates its own content storefront as well as the mobile portals for the likes of ABC, Wal-Mart, Cartoon Network and RealNetworks. Pitch does similar things but predominantly in Europe and a few South-East Asian countries.

The move likely signifies the begin of the assault of the US D2C players onto Europe. This may have been a bit of a surprise a couple of years ago but it demonstrates the change the US market has undergone, which lets companies emerge that have a huge home market in their backs giving them the muscle to try out expansion into other markets. The advantage of US-groomed companies in this space is that they have been growing up in an environment that centers more around the web than it does/did in Europe. And they have become very, very good at that. Numbers are, as always, hard to come by but by the looks of it the likes of Thumbplay have slammed even D2C giants Jamba/Jamster pretty heavily over there.

With the market moving away from expensive, low-margin off-the-page distribution, which also provides limited scalability and the increasing attraction of the mobile web, that medium is likely to gain in significance fast. This will also be boosted by the tumbling walled gardens and the aggressive introduction of data flat rates by carriers (see a piece here). The trio of European D2C giants, Jamba, Zed (see here and here) and Buongiorno are girding themselves for this but a market entry by Thumbplay, which has been going from strength to strength in the US can surely only be a question of when not if. The battle for D2C Europe should be an interesting one...

Carriers lose content sales to off-deck

I wrote about this phenomenon a short while ago here but now Business Week has some further stuff to tell us. They quote an analyst that the share of content sales via carrier decks versus so-called off-deck (or D2C providers) will drop from its current 80% to only 25% in 5 years time. And, interestingly, all of the sudden the carriers contend they had said it all along: now they claim that a single piece was not as meaningful as access. In the latter the juice is (Sprint Nextel). and now they claim that they never said that content would take over the workd (AT&T).

Do I hear bit-pipe? The article reports that revenue from wireless data, which includes mobile content and Web access, rose 53%, to $23 billion, in 2007, according to CTIA. And, yes, that's the bit pipe. The carriers start to love it? Hooray!

With D2C giants like Jamba, Thumbplay or Zed all reporting (or being said to record) very meaningful revenue numbers (Zed reported $500m in revenues last year), and OEMs on the move into a more service-driven model (with Nokia as the spearhead; see here, here and here), the pressure onto the carriers seems to have mounted so much that they now look to what they have traditionally been doing best: provide network access and bandwidth (be it for voice or data).

Enter: flat-rate data, walled gardens are so yesterday...

Mobile Content on the move!?

According to a report, mobile content is moving off-deck. The consumer survey (presumably for the US market only) found out that today's consumers use a mix of sources for their mobile content, namely the web, side-loading (called "their own collections") and the carriers.

When it comes to watching video on their phone, 35% of the consumers would choose YouTube vs 31% who would go for the carrier's own offering and 28% who side-load.

For music, side-loading leads overall with 48% of the total followed by 35% who bought off the carrier deck.

With games, the situation is yet different: 60% of consumers would only play the games that are pre-installed on their phones.

The report expects this diversification of content sources for mobile phones to increase, which sounds reasonable: just look at what Thumbplay does in the US or Jamba and Zed in Europe! Check out Nokia's Ovi initiative (including "Comes with Music") or Sony Ericsson's PlayNow Arena. Falling walled gardens and a general move to flat-rate data will contribute to consumers looking for alternative shop fronts, in particular as carriers have not always shown to be the best retailers out there - at least not for content... No big surprises then.

Will Nokia be Connecting People with Facebook?

A nice piece of rumour was brought out by the fine folks at MoCoNews: allegedly Nokia is in talks with Facebook to cooperate on mobile. And if this was not enough, there is also talk about the mighty Finns taking an investment in Facebook, and this would arguably be somewhat more significant (in cash terms at least) than the $10m stake the Samwer brothers of Jamba-fame acquired last week.

MoCoNews speculates that this could involve something as prominent as the YouTube button on the iPhone. This of course would appear to be a challenge given that most carriers will determine themselves what is and what is not on the handsets that are being sold through their retail outlets. But then Nokia has recently made strides on that front recently (as will be shown below).
A move with Facebook would fit in seamlessly with Nokia's evolving strategy towards providing entertainment services rather than only being a hardware vendor (albeit the world's largest by far with a whopping 38% market share globally): 2007 marked a year were Nokia acquired a number of companies and announced a number of initiatives and products that push the company way further down the service provision end than ever before: it acquired digital map specialist Navteq (Finland's largest acquisition ever), bought the mobile marketing and advertising folks from Enpocket, it struck a content deal with Telefonica and another one with Vodafone, all gearing towards its comprehensive content offering Ovi (see here).

Anssi Vanjoki, Nokia's multimedia guru, went on record in saying that the Internet will be the tool that will tear down the carriers' walled gardens. He continues to preach his ongoing theme (I heard about this the first time 2 years or so ago) that carriers are no entertainment companies and should therefore not fiddle with content. That might well be true, I guess. Now, if it comes to the Internet opening those walls, well, Facebook ranks #7 on the Alexa traffic charts. And, distinct to the (few) higher-ranked sites, Facebook's clean set-up and approach would seemingly make a conversion to (higher-end) mobile handsets easier than with, say, MySpace (#6).

Finally, Nokia tried to coin the phrase of "circular entertainment" (I blogged about it here where I mocked their "survey" approach) where they hold that, by 2012, 25% of all media would be created and consumed from within a circle of peers rather than from traditional media. If or if not the numbers were correct, the concept is very convincing (read e.g. Jaiku-founder Jyri Engstrom's rather insightful thoughts on object-centered sociality). Enter Facebook... 'Nuff said, I guess...

SendMe off portal: adding buzz (or rather mbuzzy)

The fine folks from SF-based SendMe Mobile have acquired mbuzzy, the latter allegedly being the "first US off-portal community" (it always is in the definition of the terms, I guess). Whatever the marketing spin might be, it is impressive how the small start-up seems to assert itself into the US mobile content market. They had recently announced a deal to distribute Glu Mobile's games and have also closed deals with Sony Pictures and UK game aggregator Telcogames.

mbuzzy has more than half a million mobile users who have downloaded over 15 million pieces of videos, wallpapers and ringtones (they don't call it personalization, which would be uncool as others stop that offering altogether but social media instead) to their mobile phones. It allows sharing of content and consumption both on your mobile and the PC. Pretty much up to scratch then. They will add the viral element to SendMe's content offering, which is effectively a mix of generally available hit games, imagery and music and simple text-based trivia games. They also run SoLow.com, a reverse auction site.

It is good to see that there does seem to be a market outside the carrier decks in the US after all. After the recent announcements (here and here) from Jamba/Jamster and Zingy/Vindigo, one could have started to doubt: Jamba is rumoured to re-focus on Europe (perhaps surprising after their Simpsons coup) whilst Zingy announced a name change and the closing of its personalization business. However, it seems to be the content mix that makes it. If the viral mbuzzy guys leverage that further, even better. Rock on, SendMe!

Only Jamba does the Simpsons

Jamba struck a remarkable deal, we read: in the US, content for Fox's cult TV series "The Simpsons" will be exclusively available via Jamba (or Jamster as it is known there). This will mean that consumers will NOT be able to download it from carrier decks. A major push for the D2C business (and only a day after we mused the consolidation of the sector). They introduce a new subscription plan ("Yellow Plan") for $9.99 a month, which offers credit for six downloads from a selection of The Simpsons content, including the Simpsons' mobile game which is produced by EA. No word if EA is prohibited from selling the game elsewhere; I doubt it.

The really interesting point is however the way Jamba positions itself with this: the company had been struggling and was indeed hit by lawsuits (class actions and all; there are even dedicated hate websites for it) over what many people found questionable business conduct, namely by allegedly luring people into relatively costly subscriptions (e.g. in the UK £4.50 per week; for games even £6.00) by offering - at first sight - free content.

Whether or not a consumer feels ripped off depends on the perceived value they receive. When I want to purchase a ringtone and end up paying £22.00 in the first month because I did not realise that I was entering a subscription, then the perceived value does not add up. If, on the other hand, I enter into a $9.99 per month subscription to obtain free access to my favourite TV show, then that might well be a different story: perceived value adequate equals happy consumers equals return customers equals a very successful and - more importantly - sustainable business.

Despite the bumpy ride through the courts, Jamba has always been very innovative and also quick to react to successes and failures, so it is somewhat unsurprising that they should have come up with this concept now. That they did this with so prominent a license deserves respect. Given that Fox (the owner of the Simpsons brand) owner News Corp holds the majority of Jamba, the deal will not even have been very expensive but be more of an act of cross-leveraging company divisions. It would arguably have been a worthwhile strategic investment geared to driving consumers to off-deck propositions in any event: this is an area where the US somewhat limp behind. This could now well be about to change.

On a sideline, this will also likely benefit the likes of Buongiorno: besides yesterday's announcement of their acquisition of I-Touch, they had previously acquired US firm Rocket Mobile, giving them a substantial footing in this market.

The trophy for deal of the week goes to Jamba though! Hats off!